What is Market Psychology?

Market psychology refers to the collective emotional state of investors that influences buying and selling decisions. In crypto—where markets run 24/7 and volatility is extreme—understanding psychology is crucial for avoiding costly mistakes.

The Market Cycle of Emotions

Bull Market Phases

  1. Disbelief: “This rally won’t last”
  2. Hope: “Maybe this is real”
  3. Optimism: “This is definitely real”
  4. Belief: “I’m a genius”
  5. Euphoria: “Nothing can stop us” (market top)

Bear Market Phases

  1. Complacency: “Just a correction”
  2. Anxiety: “Should I have sold?”
  3. Denial: “It’ll come back”
  4. Panic: “Get me out!”
  5. Capitulation: Selling at bottom
  6. Depression: “Crypto is dead”

Key Psychological Drivers

Fear

  • Drives panic selling
  • Creates buying opportunities
  • Measured by Fear & Greed Index

Greed

  • Drives FOMO buying
  • Creates overvaluation
  • Often peaks before crashes

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

  • Buying because others are profiting
  • Usually occurs near market tops
  • Leads to buying high, selling low

FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)

  • Negative news or rumors
  • Can be legitimate or manipulative
  • Often creates temporary dips

The Fear & Greed Index

ScoreSentimentTypical Action
0-24Extreme FearOften good to buy
25-44FearConsider buying
45-55NeutralHold
56-75GreedConsider selling
76-100Extreme GreedOften good to sell

Common Psychological Traps

Confirmation Bias

  • Seeking information that confirms your position
  • Ignoring negative signals
  • Echo chambers on social media

Anchoring

  • Fixating on purchase price
  • “I’ll sell when it gets back to my entry”
  • Irrational reference points

Herd Mentality

  • Following the crowd blindly
  • Buying because everyone else is
  • Panic selling with the masses

Sunk Cost Fallacy

  • Holding losers to avoid realizing loss
  • “I’ve already lost this much, might as well hold”
  • Better to evaluate current situation, not past

How to Manage Psychology

  1. Have a plan: Set entry/exit prices before trading
  2. Dollar-cost average: Remove timing pressure
  3. Use stop losses: Automate emotional decisions
  4. Limit exposure: Only invest what you can lose
  5. Take breaks: Step away from charts

Trade with clear strategies on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance that offer automated trading tools.